The understated black finish pairs with smart-home gear
A 13/13 Lizard Horror with trample is likely large enough of a creature to end most games in a couple of swings, even if you happen to be playing Commander
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If none do, the ability won't trigger at all
From the multicoloured cards, there are nine Izzet (blue/red), four Azorius (white/blue), four Boros (red/white), four Simic (green/blue), three Dimir (blue/black), two Selesnya (green/white) one Rakdos (black/red), one Gruul (red/green), one Selesnya (green/white), two Orzhov (white/black), one Golgari (black/green),one Jeskai (blue/red/white), one Grixis (blue/black/red)
So, supposing we didn't get any BVP in the starting hand, our new set of parameters are K = 4, k = 1, N = 47, and n = 1, which equals a probability of 8.51 %